Ben Shapiro
If you’ve been following coverage of the Trump administration’s military action against Iran, you’ve probably noticed something: A lot of people are determined to convince you that the United States is losing and that a disaster in the making. The goal is simple: Undermine public confidence and turn what is shaping up as a strategic success into a perceived failure. These claims deserve to be addressed:
Lie No. 1: The first lie is that the United States has stumbled into another interminable Middle East war which is destined to drag on for years and possibly escalate to catastrophic levels. This is absurd. At the time of this writing, the conflict is less than two weeks old. 12 days. That’s not 12 years, as in Vietnam, or even 12 months, as in the Spanish-American War. Wars unfold over time, and no one should pretend to know exactly how long any conflict will last. But the notion that the United States is already trapped in a generational quagmire — after less than two weeks of fighting — is less analysis than panic.
Lie No. 2: Iran is winning. Again, reality tells a different story. Iran’s military capabilities, as well as its missile and drone infrastructure has been battered. Its naval assets have reportedly suffered severe losses. There is leadership turmoil inside the regime. The ayatollah’s heir, Mojtaba Khamenei, appears to lack both political support and personal legitimacy within the system. In other words, the Iranian regime is not projecting strength. It is scrambling to maintain control.
Lie No. 3: Iran, critics say, will shut down the Strait of Hormuz and the oil shock will break the United States. For a brief moment, markets will react to this fear. However, markets, unlike pundits, respond to reality. And the reality is that Iran faces enormous consequences if it attempts to choke off one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes. President Donald Trump has made that point unmistakably clear. He warned that any Iranian attempt to block the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would trigger an overwhelming American response. The message was aimed not only at Tehran but also at Beijing and other major energy consumers: The United States intends to keep global energy flowing — and anyone who interferes will pay a heavy price.
There are legitimate questions to ask about any military action, including the Iran War, but they should not be confused with hysteria. Right now, critics are spinning worst-case scenarios while ignoring the basic facts on the ground: Iran’s military is under severe pressure, its leadership structure is unstable, and the economic fallout that many predicted has yet to materialize. None of this guarantees the conflict will end quickly or cleanly. War rarely works that way. But the narrative of inevitable American failure so loudly promoted by the Trump administration’s opponents is far removed from the reality unfolding in the Middle East.