Denmark was worried about US intentions toward Greenland even before Donald Trump sent his troops and bombers into Venezuela over the weekend, but now the Danes are truly alarmed — and so they should be. For a possible timeline to American action on Greenland, assume it may come before November’s midterm elections to Congress. As for method, I doubt even Trump knows that yet, just as sending special forces to extract Nicolas Maduro wasn’t his first choice for getting what he wanted there (he first tried a negotiated exit for the Venezuelan dictator). But what seems more likely for Greenland is some version of the hybrid use of force, money, political pressure and disinformation Putin used to seize Crimea with barely a shot fired.
The White House could pay as much as $1 million to each of the island’s inhabitants to first vote for independence and then join the US, which would cost about the same as the State Department’s annual budget. But it’s very unlikely to need to go to that expense. Denmark lacks the means to compete either militarily or economically with the US — which Frederiksen knows. Copenhagen is also, like the rest of Europe, exposed to US retaliation on trade, support for Ukraine and its own security more broadly, making a showdown with Washington unaffordable.
