For years, officials in Brussels and across Europe operated on a shared assumption: that Russia would not be in a position to directly challenge NATO before 2029. That date became a strategic comfort zone—time to rearm, coordinate, and reassure domestic publics. That certainty is now eroding rapidly. A recent wargame suggests that political hesitation, not military weakness, could allow Russia to act before Europe is ready.
A growing number of European political and military leaders now believe Moscow could test NATO—and the European Union—much sooner than previously expected. Such a move would not necessarily take the form of a full-scale invasion, but a limited, rapid, and carefully calibrated incursion designed to exploit Europe’s hesitation and internal divisions.
In one scenario, an initial force of just 15,000 troops was sufficient to sever the land corridor linking the Baltic states to the rest of NATO. More troubling than the military details was the political dimension of the exercise. It highlighted how indecision, legal ambiguity, and slow decision-making could allow Russia to achieve strategic objectives within days—without triggering a clear and unified allied response.
The scenario also assumed limited U.S. involvement from the outset. With Washington increasingly focused on domestic priorities and global competition elsewhere, European planners no longer assume immediate American leadership in a regional crisis.