Britain and Europe appear hopelessly weak in the face of Donald Trump’s threats over Greenland. So what happens next in the Greenland crisis? Here are Europe’s four main options:
Appeasement
Which is more important to European Nato allies: the US security umbrella or the Danish sovereignty of an Arctic island with around 57,000 inhabitants? No European leader has so far been willing to answer that painful question. Europe desperately needs Mr Trump, not only for its own security but for Ukraine’s sake. Continental leaders have stomached trade tariffs in deals they believed were necessary to keep the US president on side. But without Washington’s security umbrella, there is the frightening possibility of Vladimir Putin using the breakdown of US-Europe relations to stage an incursion into a Nato member country.
Trade war
The EU is drawing up a list of US products, such as Kentucky bourbon, to hit with retaliatory tariffs worth about €93bn (£81bn). However, Brussels has threatened this before then not actually imposed the taxes, preferring to de-escalate tensions rather than risk a costly trade war with the US. The EU’s Anti-coercion Instrument – the bloc’s “trade bazooka” – was designed primarily as a counter to Chinese economic blackmail against EU members. The “bazooka” could be used if a population-weighted majority of the EU’s 27 member states were in favour. But using it would require as much political support and public unity as possible. EU divisions are likely to delay or water down decisive action before bloc leaders meet on Thursday, and favour attempts to negotiate with Mr Trump at this week’s Davos Summit.
A real war
Denmark and its European Nato allies do not have the stomach for a fight with America. The US military could comfortably land 10,000 troops on the Arctic island in an hour-long window. Perhaps a symbolic shot or two would be fired in anger, but Danish troops would soon be on their way back to Copenhagen after a fight lasting a matter of minutes. Greenland would soon be recognised as a US territory and the Europeans would have to suck up their pride and continue any day-to-day business with Washington.
Europe rearms
Dependence on US security makes Britain and the rest of Europe hopelessly vulnerable to Mr Trump’s “escalation dominance”. Europe, including the UK, have neglected defence spending since the end of the Cold War while ignoring the warnings of the first Trump presidency and Putin’s seizure of Crimea. Now, they must play catch-up, and try to hit Nato defence spending targets despite very tight public budgets. Experts say Europe could build up a credible deterrence against Russia in five years, but many believe true military self-sufficiency would take decades.